Whose Fault?

This is three weeks old, but you get what you pay for.

Jeb Golinkin, on Frum­Fo­rum, post­ed on the sub­ject of the race for Oba­ma’s for­mer Sen­ate seat in Illi­nois. He is mak­ing the case for why the Repub­li­can Kirk might well beat the Demo­c­rat Giannoulias.

Gian­nou­lias has the prob­lem of

his ties to cor­rupt Illi­nois pol­i­tics as usu­al (Bla­go, Tony Rezko, the fact that his biggest fundrais­er was recent­ly arrested….etc.)…It also helps that Gian­nou­lias can’t stop find­ing his way into the news for all the wrong rea­sons. His fam­i­ly bank is on the brink of col­lapse and has loaned a clean $20 mil­lion to con­vict­ed felons.

Kirk has advantages:

Kirk is an estab­lished mod­er­ate. He vot­ed for cap and trade, a vote which prob­a­bly hor­ri­fies many read­ers but might actu­al­ly play in his favor by demon­strat­ing that he is will­ing to go out on a limb, buck his par­ty, and sup­port a pres­i­dent who still remains pop­u­lar in Illi­nois. Kirk also has impec­ca­ble nation­al secu­ri­ty cre­den­tials (for years, he has been lead­ing the push in Con­gress for sanc­tions on Iran). Fur­ther­more, his eco­nom­ic posi­tions will appeal to vot­ers eager to get their jobs back and see the econ­o­my mov­ing again.

And then there is:

the fact that Rod Blago­je­vich, with whom Gian­nou­lias has worked, is going to be on the front page of every Illi­nois paper as his tri­al unfolds.

So, Kirk is a mod­er­ate with a lib­er­al vote on the record sup­port­ing Oba­ma and Gian­nou­lias is tarred with corruption.

Cou­ple that analy­sis with the fact that the Pres­i­den­t’s par­ty always los­es seats in the mid-term election.

But you can bet your boots that if Kirk wins, there will be plen­ty of spin on the right that this race is just anoth­er exam­ple of the fail­ure of Oba­ma and the elec­torate’s rejec­tion of him.