Saints and the Republicans

This from a post at fivethirtyeight.com:

Repub­li­cans were crow­ing about social­ism and gov­ern­ment takeovers way back in the sum­mer of 2008, and oppos­ing vir­tu­al­ly every pol­i­cy that the Democ­rats put forth from the first meet­ing of the 111th Con­gress last Jan­u­ary — a time when Oba­ma’s approval had been in the high 60s. At first, those mes­sages weren’t work­ing for them — they were par­tic­u­lar­ly inef­fec­tu­al, for instance, for the McCain cam­paign, and there were lots of sto­ries in the spring about the num­ber of peo­ple who iden­ti­fied as Repub­li­can slip­ping to all-time lows. But the GOP stuck by their mes­sag­ing strat­e­gy, and it has allowed them to frame every­thing that has come there­after in ways that are more res­o­nant with the public.

This reminds me of the NFC Cham­pi­onship foot­ball game between the Saints and the Vikings. The Saints defen­sive game plan includ­ed an empha­sis on hit­ting Bret Favre. They got sev­er­al hits on him but failed to sack him. Still, they did not change the plan. Favre threw for 310 yards, but still the Saints worked to hit Favre. Sure enough, before the game was over, Favre reward­ed them by throw­ing three inter­cep­tions (the stats say two because the Saints did not catch one of the balls thrown right to them).

And the Saint won.

Why Is There A Law?

I am a bit slow to get to this, but I just came across this quick remark at the end of a blog entry:

When do we get the find­ing in re the qual­i­ty of judg­ment shown by the decision…to Miran­dize the under­wear bomber?

I believe there was not much short­age of politi­cians who made pub­lic com­ments to the effect that Umar Farouk Abdul­mu­tal­lab should not have been treat­ed as a crim­i­nal but as an ene­my com­bat­ant. Now, I am not a lawyer, but I can not help but won­der how many of those politi­cians helped to pass the laws that Abdul­mu­tal­lab is now charged with.

It seems to me if you do not want a per­son who attempts to blow up an air­plane treat­ed as a crim­i­nal, then why are you crim­i­nal­iz­ing such behav­ior? Oh yes. To look tough on the sub­ject of terrorism.

Vot­ers, I believe in being tough on ter­ror­ists and that’s why I helped to put laws against blow­ing up air­planes in the fed­er­al crim­i­nal code. Also, because I am tough on ter­ror, I do not believe that any ter­ror­ist should face those charges, but instead should be treat­ed as an ene­my combatant.”

Or some­thing like that.

I sup­pose it is pos­si­ble that treat­ing Abdul­mu­tal­lab as an ene­my com­bat­ant still requires that there be estab­lished law to charge him with. But if that estab­lished law prop­er­ly belongs in the fed­er­al crim­i­nal code, how is it dif­fer­en­ti­at­ed from the oth­er law that is sub­ject to such things as Miran­da rights?

This being the first time I have post­ed about Umar Farouk Abdul­mu­tal­lab, I feel com­pelled to men­tion that, in the days fol­low­ing Christ­mas, many radio and tv journalists/​announcers avoid­ed pro­nounc­ing his name and sim­ply referred to him as “the Niger­ian man.” I thought that rather amusing.

You Can Leave But You Cannot Check Out

Hav­ing moved to Fort Wayne, we no longer need our pre­vi­ous isp. We kept it for awhile so we could get the email. Yes­ter­day I went by the Mar­i­on cable office to return the modem and set­tle up. I gave the woman the modem and told her to shut it off we have moved. She asked for our new address. I almost protest­ed that they had no need for the new address, but I was lazy and gave it to her.

She told me the amount I owed and I hand­ed over the bills while she fur­ther explained that the amount was only an esti­mate and that we would be sent a bill after the sys­tem fin­ished cal­cu­lat­ing the final bill.

???

I told her (with a smile on my face) that any sys­tem that could not come up with the final bill right here and now was an ef’ed up sys­tem (that’s how I said it).

And I walked away laughing.

The famed effi­cien­cy of the pri­vate sector.

So Good At Communicating He Fails to Communicate

Or some­thing like that.

Oba­ma reminds me of Clin­ton. I remem­ber think­ing that Clin­ton would be a lib­er­al Rea­gan in that he, too, could be a “great com­mu­ni­ca­tor.” I thought that because he seemed to com­mu­ni­cate with the pub­lic so well as a can­di­date. But once he was in office, he stopped. And the Repub­li­cans con­trolled the mes­sage. Soon Clin­ton was declar­ing the era of big gov­ern­ment over.

Oba­ma seemed to be able to com­mu­ni­cate as a can­di­date and seems to not be able to do so as a Pres­i­dent. The Repub­li­cans con­trol the mes­sage and Oba­ma is try­ing hard to sound more cen­tric in the State of the Union address.

It is inter­est­ing that when polled about spe­cif­ic ele­ments that make up (one of?) the health care reform bill, the major­i­ty of Amer­i­cans are in favor of almost all of them. http://www.kff.org/kaiserpolls/upload/8042‑T.pdf

In oth­er words, if peo­ple under­stood what was in the leg­is­la­tion, there would be a lot more support.

I found the poll from a link on Jonathan Chait’s blog at The New Republic.

If only Oba­ma could communicate.

Memo to Democratic Congressional Reps

You have one chance. Pass the sen­ate health care bill.

The pub­lic does not dif­fer­en­ti­ate between the house bill and the sen­ate bill.

You already vot­ed for the house bill.

Your repub­li­can oppo­nent in the fall is going to pin that vote on you incessantly.

And those who sup­port reform are not going to be all that enthu­si­as­tic because you did not pass it.

So you have the worst of both worlds: blame for the vote, and no cred­it for passage.

The repub­li­cans had one goal: pre­vent the pas­sage of health care.

They have almost succeeded.

The only bills (of any con­se­quence) that will pass between now and Jan­u­ary 2011 (if not lat­er) are bills through rec­on­cil­i­a­tion. The repub­li­cans have zero incen­tive to coop­er­ate with any­thing. Obstruc­tion has served them very well in the polls.

Health care reform can­not be done sole­ly through reconciliation.

Pass the sen­ate bill and then fix what can be fixed through reconciliation.

That is all.

Free Speech and Money

So the Supreme Court knocked down (large?) por­tions of McCain/​Feingold. Spend­ing is speech and Con­gress will make no law etc.

Gen­er­al­ly I am a lib­er­al, so I guess I am sup­posed to be out­raged that the Court did what it did.

But I am not out­raged. I applaud the deci­sion. I have felt for some time that all the reg­u­la­tion of cam­paign spend­ing is not con­sti­tu­tion­al. Now, I did not make a mis­sion out of try­ing to undo it (I do not look for­ward to all of the com­mer­cials), but I have long thought it made no sense.

Part of my prob­lem with cam­paign finance laws goes back to a uni­ver­sal truth. Cre­ate a rule and there will (imme­di­ate­ly!) be those out there look­ing for a way around the rule. This cre­ates anoth­er rule, and the process con­tin­ues ad nau­se­um. Soon (a long time ago), the reg­u­la­tions are so com­plex that it is sim­ply too easy to break them even with the best of inten­tions. All of that for rules that are uncon­sti­tu­tion­al in the first place and, lets face it, did not do much to keep mon­ey out of pol­i­tics as was intended.

I think any­one should be able to give as much mon­ey as he or she (or it) wants to give to any can­di­date desired.

The one catch I would have is that all can­di­dates must pub­lish who gave (with occu­pa­tion) and how much.

This kind of trans­paren­cy is part of the cur­rent scheme and is the one part that strikes me as effec­tive. I have on sev­er­al occa­sions lis­tened to a news sto­ry on how a giv­en can­di­date received a dona­tion from a sul­lied donor and the can­di­date returned the mon­ey. This works. And the inter­net makes it eas­i­ly doable. Post the info and the press and the blog­gers will let us know if there is cause for concern.

Leadership

Some­how it already feels like ancient his­to­ry, but the read­er per­haps remem­bers the hub­bub sur­round­ing the book Game Change when it was pub­lished eight days ago. Har­ry Reid was quot­ed talk­ing about Oba­ma’s lack of a Negro dialect. Sarah Palin is also depict­ed neg­a­tive­ly in the book.

Rei­d’s response was to stand up and admit he said what he said. And he apologized.

Pal­in’s response was to sim­ply state that the book was full of lies.

One might look at the two respons­es and draw con­clu­sions about who is lead­er­ship material.

On the oth­er hand, both of them respond­ed in the way that their pol­i­tics required of them. Pol­i­tics required Reid to man up and apol­o­gize. Pol­i­tics requires Palin to just declare the book to be lies. (Maybe they are lies. I don’t know).

With 63% of precincts report­ing, the Repub­li­can Brown is defeat­ing the Demo­c­rat Coak­ley in the Mass­a­chu­setts sen­ate race 53% to 46%. It is not look­ing good.

Now the Democ­rats are faced with the ques­tion of what to do with health care reform. Are they lead­ers or are they craven cow­ards to the polit­i­cal breeze.

TPM alerts us to the ear­ly leap by Indi­ana’s Bayh to cowardice.

The irony is that if the Dems lis­ten to the les­son of Mass­a­chu­setts and fail to pass health care, they will lose a lot more this fall then they will if they stand tall and pass the bill. They already vot­ed for it.

If Coak­ley does indeed lose, it prob­a­bly means the end of Cap and Trade. With luck the glob­al warm­ing deniers are correct.

Will we get lead­er­ship or politicians?

A Little Knowledge…

John Durant is a meat eater.  The New York Times has an arti­cle on his return to a cave­man diet. My under­stand­ing is that the New York Times will soon require mon­ey to access con­tent, so I will quote:

The one thing that Mr. Durant wor­ries might spook a female guest is his most recent pur­chase: a three-foot-tall refrig­er­at­ed meat lock­er that sits in a cor­ner of his liv­ing room. That is where he keeps his organ meat and deer ribs.

Mr. Durant, 26,…is part of a small New York sub­cul­ture whose mem­bers seek good health through a selec­tive return to the habits of their Pale­olith­ic ancestors.

Or as he and some of his friends describe them­selves, they are cavemen.

The cave­man lifestyle, in Mr. Durant’s inter­pre­ta­tion, involves eat­ing large quan­ti­ties of meat and then fast­ing between meals to approx­i­mate the lean times that his dis­tant ances­tors faced between hunts. Veg­eta­bles and fruit are fine, but he avoids foods like bread that were unavail­able before the inven­tion of agri­cul­ture. Mr. Durant believes the human body evolved for a hunter-gath­er­er lifestyle, and his goal is to wean him­self off what he sees as many mil­len­ni­ums of bad habits.

These urban cave­men also choose exer­cise rou­tines focused on sprint­ing and jump­ing, to repli­cate how a pre­his­toric per­son might have fled from a mastodon.

This diet is based on our cave dwelling ances­try. Fair enough. But it ignores evo­lu­tion. One of the first things I notice here is that a giv­en organ­ism is suc­cess­ful if his or her genes are passed on. Among cave­men, this would require a lifes­pan of thir­ty years maybe? Also it is my under­stand­ing that there is a pret­ty good body of evi­dence that red meat is real­ly not good for us (but I’ve not researched this, so don’t take my word for it).

As soon as I saw the arti­cle I remem­bered read­ing some­thing about evo­lu­tion and human’s diet. It was at John Hawk’s Weblog; a post enti­tled You are what your ances­tors ate, part 1. In this post, Pro­fes­sor Hawk briefly dis­cuss­es “report­ing on an inter­dis­ci­pli­nary con­fer­ence on recent human diet evo­lu­tion”. He quotes from an arti­cle in Sci­ence*. I give you the same quote:

The agri­cul­tur­al rev­o­lu­tion favored peo­ple lucky enough to have gene vari­ants that helped them digest milk, alco­hol, and starch. Those muta­tions there­fore spread among farm­ers. But oth­er pop­u­la­tions remained more car­niv­o­rous, such as the Saa­mi of frigid north­ern Nor­way, whose ances­tors herd­ed rein­deer. Among Saa­mi ances­tors, genes to digest meat and fat effi­cient­ly were appar­ent­ly favored. One gene vari­ant, for exam­ple, makes liv­ing Saa­mi less like­ly to get uric acid kid­ney stones — com­mon in peo­ple who eat high-pro­tein diets — than are peo­ple whose ances­tors were veg­e­tar­i­an Hin­dus and lack this gene vari­ant, says geneti­cist Mark Thomas of Uni­ver­si­ty Col­lege Lon­don (UCL).

In oth­er words, there has been more than enough time for humans to adapt to an agrar­i­an civilization.

I guess it’s pos­si­ble that Mr. Durant is descend­ed from the Saa­mi of north­ern Norway.

Final­ly, cred­it where cred­it is due, I found the New York Times arti­cle from the dis­cus­sion about it at Alt­house.

* The arti­cle is by Ann Gib­bons. It is unavail­able with­out paying.

History Repeats Itself Whether It Is Remembered Or Not

In the sum­mer of 1982, I was man­ag­ing a Domi­no’s Piz­za store that served a small col­lege cam­pus. I had tak­en over the store right after the col­lege had dis­missed for the sum­mer, so busi­ness was a bit slow. One of the first things I did was to chart the week­ly sales.

One Mon­day in July the super­vi­sor arrives with a bit of burn going on. He pulled me aside and asked me if I knew that the week just end­ed had had the low­est sales of any week so far that year. I just smiled and asked him to fol­low me to the office where I direct­ed his atten­tion to my sales chart. The week just end­ed had had the low­est sales of the year every year the store had been open. My sales were high­er than the year before (as they had been every week), but not high­er than the week before. I had no idea why that par­tic­u­lar week was his­tor­i­cal­ly bad, but it was.

That one moment made chart­ing the sales worth it.

In the off year, the polit­i­cal par­ty in pow­er los­es con­gres­sion­al seats. There may have been an excep­tion or two, but that’s it. The day the democ­rats achieved six­ty votes in the Sen­ate, any­one who knew any­thing knew that they would no longer con­trol six­ty seats after the 2010 elec­tions. All of the media talk­ing heads know this. But why mess with a good story?

There is a bit of dra­ma in Mass­a­chu­setts in the bat­tle for Kennedy’s sen­ate seat, but oth­er than that the only “news­wor­thy” items con­cern­ing polit­i­cal pow­er in the sen­ate reflect the dif­fi­cul­ty the repub­li­cans face:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/01/mass-retirements-not-so-fast-dems-say.php

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/01/will-the-dems-lose-their-60-seat-edge-not-necessarily — -gop-could-lose-seats-too.php#more

But in the end, the Democ­rats will lose seats. It is the way it is.